The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Measures The Activity Level Of Purchasing Managers In The Manufacturing Sector. A Reading Above 50 Indicates Expansion In The Sector; Below Indicates Contraction. Traders Watch These Surveys Closely As Purchasing Managers Usually Have Early Access To Data About Their Company’s Performance, Which Can Be A Leading Indicator Of Overall Economic Performance.

A Higher Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Positive/Bullish For The EUR, While A Lower Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Negative/Bearish For The EUR

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Measures The Change In The Price Of Goods And Services From The Perspective Of The Consumer. It Is A Key Way To Measure Changes In Purchasing Trends And Inflation.

A Higher Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Positive/Bullish For The EUR, While A Lower Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Negative/Bearish For The EUR.

Nonfarm Payrolls Measures The Change In The Number Of People Employed During The Previous Month, Excluding The Farming Industry. Job Creation Is The Foremost Indicator Of Consumer Spending, Which Accounts For The Majority Of Economic Activity.

A Higher Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Positive/Bullish For The USD, While A Lower Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Negative/Bearish For The USD

The Unemployment Rate Measures The Percentage Of The Total Work Force That Is Unemployed And Actively Seeking Employment During The Previous Month.

A Higher Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Negative/Bearish For The USD, While A Lower Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Positive/Bullish For The USD

The Institute Of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report On Business Is Based On Data Compiled From Monthly Replies To Questions Asked Of Purchasing And Supply Executives In Over 400 Industrial Companies. For Each Of The Indicators Measured (New Orders, Backlog Of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, And Prices), This Report Shows The Percentage Reporting Each Response, The Net Difference Between The Number Of Responses In The Positive Economic Direction And The Negative Economic Direction And The Diffusion Index. Responses Are Raw Data And Are Never Changed.

The Diffusion Index Includes The Percent Of Positive Responses Plus One-Half Of Those Responding The Same (Considered Positive). The Resulting Single Index Number Is Then Seasonally Adjusted To Allow For The Effects Of Repetitive Intra-Year Variations Resulting Primarily From Normal Differences In Weather Conditions, Various Institutional Arrangements, And Differences Attributable To Non-Moveable Holidays. All Seasonal Adjustment Factors Are Supplied By The U.S. Department Of Commerce And Are Subject Annually To Relatively Minor Changes When Conditions Warrant Them.

The PMI Is A Composite Index Based On The Seasonally Adjusted Diffusion Indices For Five Of The Indicators With Varying Weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% And Inventories — 10%.

A Higher Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Positive/Bullish For The USD, While A Lower Than Expected Reading Should Be Taken As Negative/Bearish For The USD.

UAE Time Currency Event Actual Forecast Previous
Friday, February 1, 2019
01:00   USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Nov) -9.30B   1.70B
01:00   USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Nov) 31.00B   46.80B
01:00   USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov) 37.6B   31.9B
01:00   USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Nov) 25.30B   -17.30B
01:30   AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Jan) 52.5   49.5
03:30   JPY Jobs/applications ratio (Dec) 1.63 1.63 1.63
03:30   JPY Unemployment Rate (Dec) 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%
04:30   AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q4) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8%
04:30   AUD PPI (YoY) (Q4) 2.0%   2.1%
04:30   JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.3 50.0 50.0
05:45   CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.3 49.5 49.7
09:00   JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Dec)     -10.7%
09:30   AUD Commodity Prices (YoY) 6.9%   10.8%
10:45   CHF SECO Consumer Climate (Q1) -4 -5 -6
24 min   CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)   0.1% -0.5%
39 min   EUR French Government Budget Balance (Dec)     -95.6B
12:30   CHF SVME PMI (Jan)   55.8 57.8
12:50   EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   51.2 51.2
12:55   EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   49.9 49.9
13:00   EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   50.5 50.5
13:30   GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   53.5 54.2
14:00   EUR Core CPI (YoY)    1.0% 1.0%
Tentative   EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)     1.4% 1.6%
17:30   USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jan)   3.2% 3.2%
17:30   USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)   0.3% 0.4%
17:30   USD Average Weekly Hours (Jan)   34.5 34.5
17:30   USD Government Payrolls (Jan)     11.0K
17:30   USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)   17K 32K
17:30   USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)   165K 312K
17:30   USD Participation Rate (Jan)     63.1%
17:30   USD Payrolls Benchmark     146.00
17:30   USD Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a.     138.00K
17:30   USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)   170K 301K
17:30   USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan)     7.6%
17:30   USD Unemployment Rate (Jan)   3.9% 3.9%
18:30   CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan)     53.6
18:45   USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks       
18:45   USD Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   54.9 54.9
19:00   USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)   0.2% -0.1%
19:00   USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)     56.0
19:00   USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jan)     51.3
19:00   USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)   54.2 54.3
19:00   USD ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)   54.5 54.9
19:00   USD Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan)     2.60%
19:00   USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan)     78.3
19:00   USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)   90.8 90.7
19:00   USD Michigan Current Conditions (Jan)     110.0
19:00   USD Michigan Inflation Expectations (Jan)     2.7%
Tentative   USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov)   0.5% 0.8%
22:00   USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count     862
22:00   USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count     1,059

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