Global stocks and commodities rebounded ahead of one of the most awaited economic events of the week Jackson Hole symposium.
Some of the other models are humorous.
Anyone who "can't see the recesion" coming to the U.S. isn't looking at this key indicator, according to Davin Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.'s chief economist and strategist.
New York Fed Treasury Spread Model
Source: New York Fed Recession Model, MishTalk, Zerohedge edit
We can see the recession model for Jun 2020 is near 33 percent. Trade war effect could cause a bigger risk of global HDP slowdown. The next threat is inverse yield curve of some US government bonds for example : US03MY to US05Y, US03MY to US10Y, US02Y to US05Y. But the most watched pair US02Y to US10Y is still not inversed (negative spread). Will we seen rising percentage in near future or not?
The Australian dollar recovered from the previous week losses against the US dollar. The currency pair plunged to a more than a 10-month low of 0.7106 on Friday.
Good traders manage the downside; they don’t worry about the upside- Mark Minervini.
AUDNZD slip to a fresh monthly low of 1.0433, I expect the pair is likely to see more volatility going forward.