Today, all eyes are on the US non-farm payroll report. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the March jobs report today at 12.30 GMT. U.S. Nonfarm employment is considered one of the key indicators for assessing the state of the labor market. A strong US employment number is likely to spark the Fed’s aggressive tightening plans to control inflation. Economists are expecting that U.S. employers created 485,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7%.
Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no real agreements. Asian shares traded mixed on Friday after the release if weak manufacturing data. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 in March from 50.4 in the previous month.
Crude oil prices extended the losses on Friday as the U.S. weighs an unprecedented release from its national strategic petroleum reserves in an attempt to bring down gasoline prices. Meanwhile, on Thursday the OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries (OPEC+) have decided to adjust upward the monthly overall production of oil by 432,000 barrels per day (BPD) for the month of May 2022.
In the currency market, the US dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers recovered some of the losses from early trading this week ahead of the US employment report. At the time of writing, the index trades above 98.50. The risk-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar remain strong against the Euro and British pound.
The safe-haven metal erase early gains and retreated back to below $1930 as the US dollar’s strength continues. During the previous session, the metal rebounded back to above $1940 following the release of weaker-than-expected US macro-economic data.
On the data front, the UK, Germany, and Eurozone reported weak manufacturing PMI data on Friday. The UK manufacturing PMI dropped slightly to 55.2 in March. Germany's manufacturing PMI fell to 56.9 in March from a preliminary of 57.6 and Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 56.5, below expectations of 57.0 in March.
Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:
US – Employment report: GMT – 12.30
US –ISM manufacturing PMI: GMT – 14.00
Worldwide, more than 484 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 6.12 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 80 million cases and has had more than 977,000 deaths from COVID-19, the highest total in the world.
Technical Outlook and Review
DOLLAR INDEX: For today, If the bullish momentum continues then the next upside level is to watch 98.90 and 99.40. On the flip side, a breakdown through 98.00 would negate that bias and suggest a test of the 97.70 and 97.40 support regions.
The important levels to watch for today: Support- 98.30 and 98.00 Resistance- 98.65 and 98.90
GOLD: The precious metal now trading below the $1,940level, the key support remains below the previous session low of $1920. On the flip side, the immediate resistance is located above $1950, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to $1965.
The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1930 and 1912 Resistance- 1950 and 1965.
Quote of the day - “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffett